Net zero targets refer to goals set by companies to achieve a balance between greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere. These net zero targets are achieved through two parallel actions. First, companies reduce or eliminate the emissions caused by their activities by introducing renewable energy technologies, increasing energy efficiency, or adopting sustainable land management practices. Second, companies use carbon removals or offsets to neutralize the emissions they are not able to eliminate.
Carbon offsets help internalize market externalities by providing a mechanism for businesses and individuals to take responsibility for their emissions and invest in projects that reduce or remove an equivalent amount of GHGs elsewhere. Carbon offsets have been the most successful mechanism to mobilize private investment into nature and green technologies. Recently, carbon offsets have come under severe scrutiny for greenwashing companies’ image or producing "ghost" credits that do not represent actual emission reductions. It is true, the system is not perfect, but why would we throw the baby out with bathwater when the water is already boiling?
Carbon offsets have focused solely on compensating the negative externalities of GHG emissions without considering the positive externality of climate change mitigation through population reduction. The burning of fossil fuels releases pollutants such as particulate matter, nitrous oxides, sulfur oxides, and volatile organic compounds that reduce air quality and cause respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses that limit the size of vulnerable populations. Additionally, fossil fuel combustion exacerbates climate change, which increases instances of heat-borne illness, malnutrition, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather events. These "excess deaths" lead to substantial avoided emissions by reducing the population and limiting resource consumption.
Carbon markets need to include Population Emission Unit Reductions (PEUR) to price in the emission reduction potential of fossil fuel emissions. It would be easy to incorporate PEUR offsets into existing “avoided emission” carbon offset frameworks. Avoided emission carbon offsets are generated by supporting projects or activities that reduce emissions beyond business-as-usual. These emission reductions can be used as offsets if they are considered additional meaning they would have not occurred in the absence of the project. Since fossil fuel emissions cause excess deaths, they result in additional avoided emissions and could be eligible for carbon offsets.
To illustrate the potential of PEUR, a 2021 study found that particulate matter from fossil fuel emissions resulted in 10.2 million global excess deaths in 2012. These excess deaths could produce 78 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) of avoided emission in just one year. This figure corresponds to nearly half of the existing voluntary carbon market which transacted 188 million tCO2e in 2020. This yearly value pales in comparison to the long-term carbon benefits of PEUR projects, which could deliver a steady flow of carbon offsets up to 70 years since many climate-related risks such as air quality disproportionally affect children under 5.
PEUR projects have the potential to dramatically expand the carbon offset markets as well as create co-benefits for industrialized nations whose investment is critical to address the climate crisis. PEUR projects could expand to other industries and pollutants, such as "forever chemicals," to ensure long-term growth of carbon offset markets. The many scientific uncertainties will stimulate more research into climate-related mortality, which could expand the scope of PEUR projects into previously unknown climate threats, as well as inform sound methodologies that promote investor confidence. Additionally, PEUR projects could expand existing nature-based solutions by increasing the availability of land currently used by subsistence farmers. The resulting labor shortage of PEUR projects could stimulate innovation in AI farming of carbon offset tree monocultures that maximize CO2 absorption per unit area. Lastly, PEUR projects could create carbon neutral military operations that will be increasingly needed in the coming armed conflicts to secure vital resources, such as water.
Carbon offsets including PEUR are not a silver bullet solution, but we do not have the luxury to discount cost-effective solutions and wait for equitable solutions that remain elusive. We need to develop solutions which efficiently allocate resources using the infallible authority of markets and which are compatible with our fossil fuel dependent economy as well as the existing exploitation of underserved communities. Since it is impossible to guarantee everyone a dignified life, PEUR projects can add value to death and promote investment in a sustainable future for those of us that remain.
Fernando works at the intersection of climate policy, marine conservation, and marine biogeochemistry research. His most recent work focused on seagrass conservation and climate finance. He is particularly concerned with the fatally flawed market-based instruments that govern climate change mitigation and ecosystem conservation actions.